A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
