Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
